"We will attempt to answer this question using the example of the India-EU free trade agreement (FTA), agreed upon after 19 years of negotiations. Once in force, it will create a market with a combined population of approximately 2 billion people and encompass up to a quarter of global GDP. The agreement's clear geopolitical implications are to hedge against tariff wars and unpredictability, primarily emanating from the United States. Furthermore, for Brussels, this is an opportunity to balance economic ties with China and the United States and strengthen its position in one of the world's fastest-growing economies. For New Delhi, the agreement promises expanded access to new markets and an influx of investment amid ongoing tensions with the White House," noted Yuri Yarmolinsky.
He also pointed out that diversification of foreign trade has become a crucial element of India's national strategy to become a developed country by 2047, especially in the face of tariff pressure. Over the past decade, ties between the EU and India have strengthened, thanks to expanded cooperation in climate (climate finance), energy (including green energy), urban development (digital public infrastructure), and security. "Agreements on semiconductors (the country is preparing to launch its own commercial production), critical minerals, and telecommunications have brought the parties even closer to the shared goal of reducing external risks. Technology and sustainable development are becoming key drivers of cooperation. French President Emmanuel Macron's February visit to New Delhi to participate in the India-AI Impact Summit, a global summit on AI, is intended to highlight the EU's growing engagement with India on new technologies and their impact on sustainable development. However, there are exceptions to the agreement: agriculture and dairy are excluded," the expert explained.
According to the analyst, one fundamental point deserves particular attention in the context of Belarus's interests. "India's positioning itself as a future global center of manufacturing, technology, and defense means that strategic relations are no longer primarily based on simple trade and investment. This is why there is an increasingly noticeable shift away from the linear "buyer-seller" model that has long dominated trade with Europe. This trend was also confirmed by Russian President Vladimir Putin's December visit to New Delhi. India is placing a strategic emphasis on long-term joint developments and industrial production with technology transfer. This fully applies to the military-technical sector. It is worth noting that Indian defense-tech startups are recording record growth in government contracts amid a commitment to technological sovereignty and the localization of defense production," emphasized Yuri Yarmolinsky.
According to the analyst, medicine and pharmaceuticals are an important area of interaction between India and the EU. Another interesting development is the creation of a forum for company executives. This initiative aims to engage business leaders in government-level discussions on challenging trade and investment issues and illustrates an attempt to align government strategy with private sector capabilities.
"Thus, the formula for intensifying relations between India and the EU is based on a convergence of strategic concerns and economic interests. To create a solid economic and political foundation for reaching the level of strategic partnership, it is necessary to fundamentally change the usual inertial focus on interaction with India, which requires, among other things, a comprehensive and careful consideration of its concerns regarding sovereignty, threat perception, strategic priorities, and pressing domestic needs. From the above analysis, it is clear that there are no quick, linear, and universal solutions for increasing the dynamics and volume of mutual trade with India, and the trade deal between Brussels and New Delhi (especially its timing) confirms this," emphasized Yuri Yarmolinsky.
He also noted that India is primarily interested in commodity- and financially intensive markets and investments for its flagship development programs. "In terms of population, Belarus is the size of a medium-sized Indian metropolis. The Indian market is highly competitive and protectionist. The backbone of the corporate sector is private business, which precludes any significant government assistance in developing it. The key issue is the ability of Belarusian exporting companies to scale up production volumes tailored to the demanding needs of Indian consumers, which vary dramatically from region to region. Our willingness to invest financially in localization projects for specific production facilities in India, while clearly understanding our strategy and the associated risks, also appears fundamentally important," the expert concluded.