Poll-2018 among companies with German capital spent representative office of German economy in the Republic of Belarus (Belarus AHK) in cooperation with Information center of German economy (affiliated service structure DEinternational German Union of industrial chambers of Commerce (NCPTP, DIHK e.V.). In 2018, the survey was conducted in Belarus for the seventh time.
58 representatives of foreign (mainly German) companies working in Belarus participated in the survey-2018: 12 industrial enterprises, 31 service enterprises, 23 trade enterprises, 4 enterprises of energy and water supply and 6 enterprises of the construction sector. More than 90% of the survey participants are small and medium-sized businesses with staff of up to 250 people. Almost a third of enterprises share of exports in total turnover exceeds 60%, and 16% of companies is 80-100%.
Where are the "pessimists"?
For the first time since the beginning of the recession in 2014, there was a change in the overall trend of estimates of the economic situation from negative to positive. This year, almost 9 out of 10 companies surveyed gave a positive assessment of the economic situation and see further improvement or preservation of the situation. The share of "pessimists " decreased to 12.7% against 54.2% in 2017 and 70.2% in 2016.
The expectations of companies in 2018 also look much more optimistic than before: almost 90% of respondents believe that there will be no slowdown in the Belarusian economy — it will remain at the same level or increase.
The share of enterprises with a "pessimistic forecast" has also decreased to a minimum over the past five years: only 10.9% of companies do not exclude a possible slowdown in growth rates (in 2017, such was 33.9%, in 2016 — 41.8%).
In a positive direction, the trend in the estimates of the prospects for the development of the industry in 2018 has changed. The vast majority of German companies (94%) expect to improve or maintain the development of the industry. The share of optimistic respondents reached 44.8%, while the share of pessimistic respondents reached 5.9%.
Estimates of the current economic situation of the companies themselves are even more optimistic: 96.3% of the survey participants called it positive or satisfactory. Only 3.7% of the surveyed companies are not satisfied with the results, while in 2017, 11.9% were dissatisfied, in 2016 — 14.3%.
German business is quite optimistic about the development prospects of the companies this year: only one in ten respondents expects the economy to deteriorate. The progress is obvious — in 2017, the deterioration was predicted by 11.9% of respondents, in 2016-17.9%. Now the share of" optimists " has reached the pre — crisis indicator-38.2%.
By the way, the survey organizers explain the predominance of positive assessments of German companies not only by the revival of the Belarusian economy against the background of favorable external conditions, but also by the flexibility of German companies, their ability to adapt to new trends and rapidly changing conditions in foreign markets.
Every second company forecasts export growth in 2018
Almost 90% of German companies noted that in 2017 their turnover in euros increased or did not change compared to the previous year. At the same time, the number of companies that have reduced turnover has decreased almost four times. Every third company noted the growth of turnover and only one in ten respondents indicated its decline.
The share of participants expecting to increase or maintain their company's turnover in 2018 increased to more than 95%. While its decline is predicted only 3.6% of German companies (in 2017 they were 12.1%, in 2016 — 25.9%).
The situation is similar in foreign economic activity. The number of companies that reduced the volume of exports in 2017 decreased four times. But every third Respondent pointed to the growth of exports (in 2017 year it was every fourth Respondent). In General, more than 94% of German companies ' exports increased or remained at the level of the previous year.
At the same time, more than 90% of companies expect that their exports will not decrease this year, and every second company predicts its growth.
Against this background, the financial performance of German companies in 2017 looks quite predictable: almost 60% of the surveyed companies increased profits (which is 1.5 times more than in 2017)
It is also significant that more than 80% of German companies increased or retained investment spending last year, while almost 2/3 of them noted the growth of investment in the development of their business in Belarus. Moreover, the share of companies that plan to increase their investments in the short term increased by 3 times to 68.4% compared to 2017. In the current year, about 90% plan to expand the investment program if not to keep it.
The main risks are demand, inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, legal guarantees
One of the most serious risks for the development of its business in Belarus, German companies believe a possible reduction in consumer demand. They have also traditionally pointed to risks caused by changes in political and economic framework conditions, exchange rate fluctuations, accelerated inflation, etc.a Third of companies noted risks associated with legal guarantees.
Assessing the positive factors of the business climate in Belarus, German companies noted the political stability, developed infrastructure and skills of employees. At the same time, they negatively assessed the payment discipline in the country and the quality of financial services.
In the middle of the rating
In the ranking of the attractiveness of countries for foreign investment, Belarus rose from 16th place in 2017 to 12th place in the survey-2018.
At the same time, only 65% of German enterprises are ready to choose Belarus again as a country for investment. Not so much, although last year was less – 51% (the rate pre-crisis level in 2013-2014 — 70 %). Germany (with a rating of 2.0 points against 2.3 last year), Austria and Poland, as well as other EU member States-the Czech Republic, France, Slovakia-still retain the leadership in this ranking. China and Russia were among the top ten countries according to the survey of German companies.